One last training run

One final run today before the big race, my normal lunchtime 6.44 km loop in 34:35, or a 5:20 per km pace. I didn't bring the right heart rate chest strap so I don't have a bpm measurement by I ran moderately hard, though not full race pace. I took it easy on the stairs up to York Road so I didn't pull anything.

It was nice out, about 4 degrees and pretty sunny. I wore what I was planning to race in - tights, shorts, long sleeve shirt, fleece - but I was a little warm. I'm thinking of going to short tights (with shorts over top) and a sleeveless t-shirt with a long sleeve shirt over top. I might be a little cool early, but I think that's better than too hot later. The other option is to buy a cheap Value Village fleece and just ditch it on the course.

The weather forecast is 5 degrees with sun and cloud but some pretty good wind.

I've decided on my goal for Around the Bay: 2:45. There is nothing in my training that indicates that I can make this time - none of my long runs were on pace to reach 2:45 for 30km.  On the plus side, my half marathon last fall - on a dead flat course in perfect weather - puts me in the 2:42 range. I've decided on this time because in every race I set a conservative goal and then exceeded it I wished I was more aggressive.

2:45 also puts me on pace to break a 4hr marathon.

It means I need to run a 5:30 pace per km over 30km. The question is how to do this. There aren't many articles on 30km race strategy but there are a ton for marathons. I found this one particularly helpful. My instinct is to try and go out ahead of my goal pace - say 50 minutes for the first 10km - run the second 10km at the goal pace and then hang on until the end with a little cushion to deal with the hills in the last leg.

Most of my reading, however, says this strategy is a mistake. A better plan would be to either
run slower than goal pace early on and then try to pick it up at the end or just try and run at goal pace the whole way through. That's the negative split thing Joe Friel was talking about it. I'm not sure the Bay course sets up well for that though.

Anyway, that's my goal. If it becomes clear 2:45 isn't going to happen, I'll shoot for sub 3hr. If that gets wrecked than just finishing might look pretty good.